Along with the rest of the world, the current economic downturn has gripped my full attention.  Despite many grim outlooks and predictions, I remain completely optimistic.  In many ways, I view the severe dip as the beginning of a completely new era.  Quite frankly, I find comfort in this notion…and so should you!

It is all too easy to get caught up in the familiar negative tones uttered by the masses.  We all know the type.  They instinctively regurgitate that all too common “recession speech” muttered by most of the TV news anchors.  Whether it be the astronomical rise in the unemployment rate, the ridiculous bailout figures, or even those human-Dow Jones ticker-types, who insist on griping over their recent losses in the market.

“Woe is Me” (in other words, “I’m Lame and My Thoughts Are Stale”)

As tempting as it is to add fuel to the “pessimism fire”, I advise you to resist at all costs.  My most common “extinguishing” technique comes from referencing the unmistakable Warren Buffett.  In an interview with CNBC, Mr. Buffett is asked about our current President and our economic future.  His response:

He is the right President. And incidentally, this is the right country. I mean, we’ve got the right President; we’ve got the right country. We’re gummed up at the moment, but this is the place to be. And this is the right time.
I wish I was 21 now instead of 78. The best days of America really do lie ahead. And President Obama is very, very smart. He’s got, I think, exactly the right goals. He’s articulate and he will be the right person to be the commander in chief in this economic crisis.
-Warren Buffett

Mr. Buffett’s words serve as an inspirational rallying cry…especially to those in the younger generation.  Obviously, the “Buffett Effect” is very powerful, and I would not expect anything but optimism from the brilliant billionaire.  But no matter if his speech is 100% genuine or slightly influenced by external factors (which I don’t believe is the case), it really doesn’t matter.  There is one, and only one way to look at our future…wide open.

The Four Stage Business Cycle

The traditional business cycle has always been explained in four self explanatory stages:

1. Infancy/Startup  << Guess what lies ahead
   
2. Growth
3. Maturity
4. Decline < Guess where we are

(Rinse and repeat)

If we were to pinpoint our current economy within this cycle…it’s no surprise where we would stand.  Repeating the cycle means that we are gearing up for a massive period of restructuring from the ground level.  As I alluded to in the beginning of the post, I believe this period of restructuring will undoubtedly usher in a new economic era.  An era led in large part by the younger generation (Gen Y).  Just as the industrial revolution bred tremendous innovation with interchangeable parts, automation, and manufacturing, we finally have the opportunity to incorporate our most recent revolution – the digital revolution — into our core business blueprint.

Take a quick glimpse at the current business landscape.  Many businesses established prior to the 90’s are simply at a technological disadvantage when compared to businesses created after this time period.  Obviously, this decade marks the commercialization of the internet, and what most would consider the beginning of the digital revolution.

And we are seeing the effects of being behind the times in nearly every economic sector.  Take the automobile and newspaper businesses, for example.  Both industries established in a time period well before the current digital revolution.  And just recently, we have all played witness to their massive blunders and inability to effectively utilize technological advances as well as embrace shifting consumer perspectives.

This Isn’t Your Father’s Business

Michael Malone, author of The Future Arrived Yesterday: The Rise of the Protean Corporation and What It Means for You, explains how the traditional business landscape has and will continue to change.  He stresses the fact that companies must become extremely fast moving, shape-shifting entities that  must embrace innovation and change.  He also explores the notion of “intrapreneurs,” that is, entrepreneurs who operate inside of a company’s infrastructure, and their positive impact on corporate innovation.  This is a philosophy made popular by many high-tech companies like Google.

Businesses are a living, breathing organism.  It’s time we started treating them as such.  So what other types of things can you expect?  Well, don’t be surprised to find a completely new business arena:

• where the phrase “too big to fail” no longer applies
• where businesses embrace transparency
• that is flatter, interconnected, and instantly globalized
• where smaller teams = greater agility = greater innovation
• where competition is as fierce as ever
• in which customers, clients, and users have a much louder voice
• where consistent reinvention is a must

So Who Will Lead This Charge?

The answer is very simple: it’s the entrepreneurs, it’s the startup junkies, it’s the innovators, it’s the non-conformists, it’s the contrarians…it’s YOU, the TECHSOOMERS.

Do yourself a favor and view the recession as one giant opportunity.  Instead of getting discouraged by the naysayers, thank them for creating one less competitor.  When things are good, it’s easy to stay optimistic.  It’s when the times are tough, capital is scarce, and the future uncertain when it becomes easy to give up.  Subsequently, it’s also in these particular times when you stand the best chance to shape the future.

Out with the old, in the with the new.